Zerohedge-Rate-cut expectations for 2026 plunged (hawkishly) today (dropping with oil’s gains early and then extending after The Fed). 2026 rate-cut expectations are down from over 62bps to just 15bps today since the start of the war…
Zerohedge
2. 5 Year Break Even Rate Heads Back to 2022 Levels
Kevin Gordon
Google
3. Gold -16.4% from Highs
StockCharts
4. Silver -43% from Highs
StockCharts
5. Gold to Oil Ratio Hit Covid Levels
Perplexity
Macrotrends
6. Truflation Chart Moving the Wrong Way…..Goods Inflation Highest in 3 Years
Truflation
7. S&P 500 After Geopolitical Events-Irrelevant Investor
The Irrelevant Investor
8. Rivian Partners with UBER….Still -87% from Highs
Google
9. 33% of 18-29 Year Olds Say Being Extremely Rich is Morally Wrong
Pew Research Center
10. Growth in Select Average Housing Costs
America’s homeowners are getting swamped by insurance costs, HOA fees, and property taxes-Business Insider.
2. MSFT Holding 2025 Lows and 200 Week Moving Average
StockCharts
3. Euro Currency Rolling Over Post Iran War—FXE Euro ETF
StockCharts
4. 422 Members of S&P were Negative Yesterday
5. Short Interest has Tripled in Oil Funds
The Kobeissi Letter
6. Annual CO2 Emissions
Our World in Data
7. Dubai Airport Flights Fall Off Cliff
Semafor
8. NYC Spends More Per Homeless Person than NYC Median Household
Charlie Smirkley
Perplexity
9. San Fran Housing—Bidding Wars $400k Over Asking and Rents Up +14%
WSJ Katherine Bindley San Francisco’s housing market is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by the AI boom and municipal leadership changes.
SAN FRANCISCO—At a Pacific Heights open house in January, a line of people made their way up the steps of a two-bedroom, one-bath cooperative. There were 85 of them—steps, not people. Eight flights, no elevator.
The property received 14 offers and sold for over $1.62 million, more than $400,000 over the asking price.
While much of the U.S. housing market has been stuck in a rut, slowed by elevated mortgage rates and home prices near record highs, pockets of San Francisco are rebounding in a big way.
The AI boom, a new mayor and other changes in municipal leadership have helped to bring the city back, reversing a yearslong slump that was compounded by the ripple effects of the pandemic, crime and persistent struggles with homelessness.
Rents citywide were up 14% year over year in February, the fastest growth in the country, according to Apartment List. Mansions have been getting snapped up. An uptick in demand coupled with the city’s notorious lack of housing supply means that fierce bidding wars are breaking out again for single-family homes and condominiums in desirable neighborhoods.
Sherwood News With attacks on vessels in the narrow transit corridor escalating last week, Bloomberg data shows that daily ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged 98.5% over the past three weeks, from 67 vessels on February 22 to just one ship on March 16.
4. INDA India ETF Hit -20% from Highs…Closed Below 200-Week Moving Average
StockCharts
5. Value of Private Equity Deals Held for More than 7 Years Hits $1T
Financial Times
6. Quarterly Performance of S&P 500 When Yield Spreads Narrow vs. Widen
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright The economy and the stock market are not one in the same, but there is a typically a strong relationship between the two and US equities have historically performed significantly better when high yield spreads are narrowing, indicating favorable economic conditions. The table below shows the quarterly performance of the S&P 500 when high yield spreads are narrowing versus when they are widening. It is also apparent that the magnitude of the change is also change is also significant as the S&P has performed better during quarters when spreads narrowed significantly and worse when they widened by a large amount.
Nasdaq
7. High Dispersion Under the Hood of S&P
Axios
8. VC Backed Crypto Companies Investing in Non-Crypto Businesses
Pitchbook-So far in 2026, VC-backed crypto companies have invested $1.4 billion in startups outside the industry, more than twice the $600 million they invested in crypto-focused startups, according to PitchBook data.
PitchBook
9. Probability of a Rate Hike Higher than Cut as of March
10. Cultivating a Lucky Mindset
Looking for the lucky explanations in life can transform our experiences-Psychology Today Dayna Lee-Baggley Ph.D.
Key points
Train your brain to find lucky interpretations with practice and repetition.
Acknowledge reality and reframe it positively without ignoring negative events.
Practice finding the lucky explanation to create new neural connections and change your mindset.
There was a study of people who considered themselves lucky and people who considered themselves unlucky (see Wiseman, 2003). They had to read a scenario and discuss it. One of the scenarios: You’re at the bank, and while you’re at the bank, there’s a robbery, and you get shot in the arm.
The unlucky people said, How unlucky am I? I’m at the bank, and I get shot during a robbery.
The lucky people said, How lucky am I? I only got shot in my arm.
This begs the question: Do they have a lucky life, or did they find ways to find a “lucky” interpretation?
Cultivating a Lucky Mindset
Most of us don’t automatically come up with a lucky explanation when faced with adversity. It requires conscious effort and practice. However, with time and repetition, you can spontaneously train your brain to expect and generate these positive interpretations.
Acknowledge the Reality: It’s crucial to understand that adopting a lucky mindset doesn’t mean ignoring or downplaying negative events. The lucky participants in the study acknowledged the fact that they had been shot. They weren’t engaging in toxic positivity, which involves denying or minimizing genuine distress.
Reframe the Situation: After acknowledging the reality, intentionally look for a positive angle. For instance, “I got shot in the arm, but how lucky am I that it wasn’t more serious?” In psychology, a well-known effect highlights the importance of who you compare yourself to. When researchers examine the happiness levels of Olympic medal winners, they find an intriguing pattern: gold medalists are the happiest, followed by bronze medalists, with silver medalists being the least happy. This phenomenon occurs because each group has different reference points for comparison. Bronze medalists tend to compare themselves to those who did not win any medal, which makes them pleased and grateful for their achievement. In contrast, silver medalists often compare themselves to gold medalists, feeling disappointed that they did not win the top prize. Think about your comparison group when proposing a lucky explanation.
Practice Regularly: Like any skill, this mindset requires regular practice. Whenever you encounter challenges, make it a habit to finish the sentence with, “How lucky am I?” As you repeat this process, you create a new neural connection. Over time, your brain will begin to do this automatically.
Conclusion
Science shows us that adopting a lucky mindset doesn’t mean ignoring life’s challenges. It’s about finding a balanced perspective that acknowledges difficulties while recognizing the positives. Consciously practicing this technique can train your brain to seek the lucky explanation. This can make life feel way more manageable and hopeful.
Jet fuel. “Jet fuel costs have increased by 81% since the start of the war in Iran and are up by 124% this year.”
Joseph Brusuelas – RSM
6. 87% of Asian Crude Flows thru Strait of Hormuz
Barrons -87%-The percentage of crude oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz that was sold into Asian markets in 2025.
The problem is that the strait can’t be cleared solely through a bombing campaign, or an attack by destroyers. Iran’s navy has been severely depleted by the U.S., but the country doesn’t need large attack ships to scare commercial vessels away. Its weapons include mines, fast attack boats, missiles and drones. Layered on top of each other, they become exceptionally difficult to remove.
“They’ve created an integrated, vertical stack of threats that can cover the strait from undersea all the way to above the surface,” said Jonathan Schroden, chief research officer at the Center for Naval Analyses, a federally funded nonprofit that does research for the Navy.
Once mines are in the water, this becomes “one of the most dangerous scenarios that people who focus on the Middle East have been thinking about for decades,” he said.
Over the last 4 years, the New York Times has successfully pivoted away from its 175 year history as a news-first company.
News-only subscribers have collapsed by 65%, while bundle and other single-product subscribers have increased by 157%. Now, only 1 in 10 subscribers are coming to the New York Times strictly for the news.
This successful pivot is a byproduct of the New York Times’ growth in mobile gaming (acquired Wordle in 2022), podcasts, cooking content, and personalized sports content (acquired The Athletic in 2022 as well).
This rebrand also helped revitalize the business from a profitability perspective. From 2007 to 2022, operating income at the New York Times went from $187 million to $202 million. Over the last 3 years, operating income has exploded to $432 million.
Fiscal.ai
8. Venezuala Owes $150B to Foreign Creditors
Google
9. Share of New Car Sales that are EV’s
Semafor
10. Shane Parish Interview with Marriott
J.W. Marriott built the foundation of the world’s largest hotel company.
But he didn’t open his first hotel until he was 55.
Everything started with a nine-seat root beer stand in Washington, DC, and a simple goal: serve people well and build something that lasts. And of course, he didn’t just go from restaurants to hotels; along the way, he started the airline catering industry.
This episode explores the timeless principles that guided his success, including his obsession with downside risk, his practice of isolating variables, and his expansion during the Great Depression while his competitors folded.
A few of the Tiny Lessons I took away:
“Manage your time. Short conversations to the point. Make every minute count.”
Take care of your people before your customers. People who feel disposable deliver a disposable experience.
“Guard your habits. Bad ones will destroy you.”
The person who wrote the rule might say yes if you actually show up and ask.
“Discipline is the greatest thing in the world. Where there is no discipline, there is no character.”
