TOPLEY’S TOP 10 March 23, 2026

1. Gold Largest Monthly Decline Since 2013

Bespoke Gold’s double-digit percentage decline this month is on pace for the largest monthly decline in the commodity since June 2013 and, if it holds, would rank as the eighth largest one-month decline in gold since at least 1975. What’s even more interesting is that this month’s decline follows a double-digit percentage gain in February.

Bespoke’s


2. Non-Software Private Loans Not Showing Distress

 Apollo


3. Silver SLV Chart –Blue Support Line Goes Back to 2022 ..Huge Level Held

StockCharts


4. Gold GLD Same Blue Support Line—Nowhere Near It

StockCharts


5. GDX Gold Miners -30% from Highs….Right on 200-Day

StockCharts


6. Drone deals fueled VC’s 139% surge into defense robotics

Pitchbook By Jacob Robbins, Technology Reporter

Defense and security robotics attracted $8 billion in VC across 234 deals in 2025, a 139% year-over-year increase, according to our debut Robotics & Physical AI VC Trends report. The subsector also surpassed all of its peers.

Much of defense robotics’ rise is coming at the expense of logistics and warehousing, which historically has captured the lion’s share of investor attention. The latter shed 28.5% of its deal value in 2025 compared to 2024.

The shift may reflect more than just a brief reallocation.

“Warehousing and logistics has moved out of the hype phase and into a tougher environment where investors want clearer differentiation, better margins and proof that these companies are not just selling into a slower industrial CapEx cycle,” said Ali Javaheri, PitchBook’s senior emerging spaces research analyst and the author of the report.

“Robotics capital is no longer just chasing automation in the abstract—it is flowing toward segments where buyers need capability now and are willing to pay for it,” he said. “Defense fits that perfectly.”

PitchBook

Autonomous drones were the main driver of the surge in funding in defense robotics, raking in $6.2 billion across 169 deals on a trailing-12-month basis as investors pour capital into a market reshaped in real time by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Overall, the robotics and physical AI sector raised a record $27.6 billion across 1,009 deals in 2025, more than double the $13.7 billion invested in 2024 from 851 pacts.

Some of the biggest deals in Q4 were for defense and security robotics startups.

German autonomous-drone specialist Quantum Systems—which has deployed its drones for the Ukrainian army—raised $208.6 million in new funding and tripled its valuation to $3.5 billion in November.

And Forterra, a startup developing autonomous robotic military vehicles, raised a $238 million Series C in November as well.

Defense robotics’ boom is part of a broader investment wave for autonomous systems. Last year, VC investments into the sector were up 143%.


7. Market History Fact—1989 Japan was 45% of Global Market Cap

Google


8. China Doubles Down on Crypto Ban-China Document 42

Perplexity


9. Medicaid and Autism

WSJ The bet paid off. In 2023, the state paid Mitchell’s company, Piece by Piece Autism Centers, $29 million to provide therapy to just 84 patients—about $340,000 a child—according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Medicaid billing records.

That amount surpassed what Indiana Medicaid typically spends in a year treating a newly diagnosed lung-cancer patient or covering a year of nursing-home care.

Piece by Piece became one of Medicaid’s most expensive providers in part by raising its prices, triggering reimbursements as high as $640 an hour for routine therapy that can be administered by workers with little more than a high-school diploma. Its highest payments were more than 10 times higher than the nation’s average.

Mitchell said her company complied with Indiana’s rules and the state never objected to her prices. 

“I don’t think Indiana really had any oversight, or not much,” said Mitchell, who bought a series of properties, including a $2.5 million home on Florida’s Sanibel Island and a $600,000 waterfront house on the Tippecanoe River in Indiana, while her company’s Medicaid billings soared.

WSJ


10. How Toxic People Make Us Age Faster

Psychology Today A new study shows how unpleasant people lead to accelerated biological aging. Sebastian Ocklenburg, Ph.D.

Key points

  • Toxic people can cause a lot of stress with their behavior
  • Studies have shown that stress can accelerate biological aging
  • A new study investigated the effect of toxic people on biological aging
  • Having a toxic person in the social network accelerated aging by 1.5%.

How bad are toxic people for physical health?

Supportive and positive social relationships with friends and family members can have many positive effects on health and mental well-being. In contrast, toxic friends or family members that are overly hostile, permanently passive-aggressive, or purposefully difficult can become huge stressors. Chronic stress has all sorts of negative effects on both mental and physical health. For example, stress research has shown that chronic stress can accelerate ageing and increase inflammation.

This implies an intriguing research question: Do toxic people not only worsen our mental health, but do they maybe also have a very real effect on biological age and accelerate the ageing process due to all the stress they cause?

A new study on toxic social ties and accelerated aging, and inflammation

A new study, just published in the prestigious scientific journal “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America” (or in short: PNAS), was focused on finding out whether toxic people accelerate biological aging (Lee and co-workers, 2026). In the study entitled “Negative social ties as emerging risk factors for accelerated aging, inflammation, and multimorbidity”, the research team led by scientist Byungkyu Lee from New York University used an advanced biological method called DNA methylation-based biological aging clocks. This method allowed them to determine the biological age of the volunteers in their study. Overall, data from more than 2300 volunteers from Indiana were analysed in the study. For each volunteer, the scientists determined their social networks and whether they had one or more “hasslers” In their social network. “Hasslers” were people who caused the person too much stress and difficulty. Moreover, saliva samples were collected from the volunteers to perform the advanced DNA methylation-based determination of their biological age. Moreover, the volunteers filled out further questionnaires on health and mental health.

Results of the study: Toxic people accelerate aging

Overall, the volunteers identified 8.1 percent of the overall number of people in their social networks as toxic “hasslers.” Overall, 28.8 percent of volunteers reported having one or more toxic people in the social network. 10 percent of volunteers had two or more toxic people in their social network. Women were more likely than men to have at least one toxic person in their social network. Moreover, people who felt like others depended on them a lot were more likely to have toxic people in their network.

The analysis showed that each toxic person led to a 1.5 percent faster ageing process. On average, the biological age of volunteers with toxic people in their social networks was 9 months higher than that of people of the same birth age without toxic friends or family members. Interestingly, toxic family members or toxic friends had stronger effects on ageing than toxic spouses. This may be the case because the positive effects of marriage, such as reduced loneliness, may buffer some of the negative effects of toxic social contacts. Last but not least, having a toxic person in the social network also affected multiple further biological parameters beyond biological ageing, such as inflammation levels.

Take-Away: Stay away from toxic people

The study clearly showed that toxic friends or family members have very real biological effects. They not only cause reduced mental well-being and frustration but also accelerate ageing and increase inflammation in the body. This suggests that for healthy ageing and general wellbeing, reducing contact with toxic people is highly important.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-asymmetric-brain/202602/toxic-people-makes-us-age-faster

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 March 20, 2026

1. Rate Cut Expectations Back to 2013 Levels

Zerohedge-Rate-cut expectations for 2026 plunged (hawkishly) today (dropping with oil’s gains early and then extending after The Fed). 2026 rate-cut expectations are down from over 62bps to just 15bps today since the start of the war…

Zerohedge


2. 5 Year Break Even Rate Heads Back to 2022 Levels

Kevin Gordon

Google


3. Gold -16.4% from Highs

StockCharts


4. Silver -43% from Highs

StockCharts


5. Gold to Oil Ratio Hit Covid Levels

Perplexity

Macrotrends


6. Truflation Chart Moving the Wrong Way…..Goods Inflation Highest in 3 Years

Truflation


7. S&P 500 After Geopolitical Events-Irrelevant Investor

The Irrelevant Investor


8. Rivian Partners with UBER….Still -87% from Highs

Google


9. 33% of 18-29 Year Olds Say Being Extremely Rich is Morally Wrong

Pew Research Center


10. Growth in Select Average Housing Costs

America’s homeowners are getting swamped by insurance costs, HOA fees, and property taxes-Business Insider.

Business Insider

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 March 19, 2026

1. Bitcoin Holding 2024 Lows

Bitbo.io


2. MSFT Holding 2025 Lows and 200 Week Moving Average

StockCharts


3. Euro Currency Rolling Over Post Iran War—FXE Euro ETF

StockCharts


4. 422 Members of S&P were Negative Yesterday


5. Short Interest has Tripled in Oil Funds

The Kobeissi Letter


6. Annual CO2 Emissions

Our World in Data


7. Dubai Airport Flights Fall Off Cliff

Semafor


8. NYC Spends More Per Homeless Person than NYC Median Household

Charlie Smirkley

Perplexity


9. San Fran Housing—Bidding Wars $400k Over Asking and Rents Up +14%

WSJ Katherine Bindley  San Francisco’s housing market is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by the AI boom and municipal leadership changes.

SAN FRANCISCO—At a Pacific Heights open house in January, a line of people made their way up the steps of a two-bedroom, one-bath cooperative. There were 85 of them—steps, not people. Eight flights, no elevator.

The property received 14 offers and sold for over $1.62 million, more than $400,000 over the asking price.

While much of the U.S. housing market has been stuck in a rut, slowed by elevated mortgage rates and home prices near record highs, pockets of San Francisco are rebounding in a big way.

The AI boom, a new mayor and other changes in municipal leadership have helped to bring the city back, reversing a yearslong slump that was compounded by the ripple effects of the pandemic, crime and persistent struggles with homelessness.

Rents citywide were up 14% year over year in February, the fastest growth in the country, according to Apartment List. Mansions have been getting snapped up. An uptick in demand coupled with the city’s notorious lack of housing supply means that fierce bidding wars are breaking out again for single-family homes and condominiums in desirable neighborhoods.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/san-francisco-housing-market-ai-8c4e3f59


10. Post 50-Actively Invest in Someone Else’s Growth

The Pump Club

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 March 18, 2026

1. Private Credit Defaults Hit 9.2%

Michael A. Gayed


2. Private Credit Books at Large Firms Bigger than Private Equity Side

Gain


3. Betting on 5 Minute and 15 Minute Moves in Crypto-Financial Times

Financial Times


4. Follow Up to Yesterday’s Under the S&P Hood Slide….40% of S&P Stocks -20% from Highs

Special Situations


5. XLF Financial Sector ETF –50day About to Cross Below 200day to Downside

StockCharts


6. Defense Company Valuations Post Trump II-Prof G

Prof G Markets


7. Small Cap Holding Above 200-Day


8. Gasoline Prices Still Below 2024 Highs

Wolf Street


9. Home Buyers vs. Sellers

Bilello


10. Natural Dopamine

Mark Hyman

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 March 17, 2026

1. Where Does Hormuz Oil Go?


2. Hormuz Traffic -98%

Sherwood News With attacks on vessels in the narrow transit corridor escalating last week, Bloomberg data shows that daily ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged 98.5% over the past three weeks, from 67 vessels on February 22 to just one ship on March 16. 

The only maritime gateway between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean, the strait handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, with very few alternatives if closed.

Sherwood


3. Mag 7 Market Cap History-Bespoke

Bespoke’s


4. INDA India ETF Hit -20% from Highs…Closed Below 200-Week Moving Average

StockCharts


5. Value of Private Equity Deals Held for More than 7 Years Hits $1T

Financial Times


6. Quarterly Performance of S&P 500 When Yield Spreads Narrow vs. Widen

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright The economy and the stock market are not one in the same, but there is a typically a strong relationship between the two and US equities have historically performed significantly better when high yield spreads are narrowing, indicating favorable economic conditions. The table below shows the quarterly performance of the S&P 500 when high yield spreads are narrowing versus when they are widening. It is also apparent that the magnitude of the change is also change is also significant as the S&P has performed better during quarters when spreads narrowed significantly and worse when they widened by a large amount.

Nasdaq


7. High Dispersion Under the Hood of S&P

Axios


8. VC Backed Crypto Companies Investing in Non-Crypto Businesses

Pitchbook-So far in 2026, VC-backed crypto companies have invested $1.4 billion in startups outside the industry, more than twice the $600 million they invested in crypto-focused startups, according to PitchBook data.

PitchBook


9. Probability of a Rate Hike Higher than Cut as of March


10. Cultivating a Lucky Mindset

Looking for the lucky explanations in life can transform our experiences-Psychology Today Dayna Lee-Baggley Ph.D.

Key points

  • Train your brain to find lucky interpretations with practice and repetition.
  • Acknowledge reality and reframe it positively without ignoring negative events.
  • Practice finding the lucky explanation to create new neural connections and change your mindset.

There was a study of people who considered themselves lucky and people who considered themselves unlucky (see Wiseman, 2003). They had to read a scenario and discuss it. One of the scenarios: You’re at the bank, and while you’re at the bank, there’s a robbery, and you get shot in the arm.

  • The unlucky people said, How unlucky am I? I’m at the bank, and I get shot during a robbery.
  • The lucky people said, How lucky am I? I only got shot in my arm.

This begs the question: Do they have a lucky life, or did they find ways to find a “lucky” interpretation?

Cultivating a Lucky Mindset

Most of us don’t automatically come up with a lucky explanation when faced with adversity. It requires conscious effort and practice. However, with time and repetition, you can spontaneously train your brain to expect and generate these positive interpretations.

Acknowledge the Reality: It’s crucial to understand that adopting a lucky mindset doesn’t mean ignoring or downplaying negative events. The lucky participants in the study acknowledged the fact that they had been shot. They weren’t engaging in toxic positivity, which involves denying or minimizing genuine distress.

Reframe the Situation: After acknowledging the reality, intentionally look for a positive angle. For instance, “I got shot in the arm, but how lucky am I that it wasn’t more serious?” In psychology, a well-known effect highlights the importance of who you compare yourself to. When researchers examine the happiness levels of Olympic medal winners, they find an intriguing pattern: gold medalists are the happiest, followed by bronze medalists, with silver medalists being the least happy. This phenomenon occurs because each group has different reference points for comparison. Bronze medalists tend to compare themselves to those who did not win any medal, which makes them pleased and grateful for their achievement. In contrast, silver medalists often compare themselves to gold medalists, feeling disappointed that they did not win the top prize. Think about your comparison group when proposing a lucky explanation.

Practice Regularly: Like any skill, this mindset requires regular practice. Whenever you encounter challenges, make it a habit to finish the sentence with, “How lucky am I?” As you repeat this process, you create a new neural connection. Over time, your brain will begin to do this automatically.

Conclusion

Science shows us that adopting a lucky mindset doesn’t mean ignoring life’s challenges. It’s about finding a balanced perspective that acknowledges difficulties while recognizing the positives. Consciously practicing this technique can train your brain to seek the lucky explanation. This can make life feel way more manageable and hopeful.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-psychology-of-weight-loss/202405/cultivating-a-lucky-mindset