TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 22, 2026

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1. 5 Companies Revenues Most Tied to AI Build Out

Dave Lutz Jones Trading…”Some firms’ revenue is almost existentially tied to the capex decisions of one or two players. Here’s a chart showing the top five companies’ revenue dependence on the ecoverse” FT reports

2. Semi Driving 62% of S&P Earnings Growth

3. Margin Debt Still High But Cooling Off

Margin debt. “After reaching +50%, margin-debt YoY growth has steadily cooled to +37.2%. (Periods above +50% YoY are shaded in grey).”

@hbresearchx

4. MAG 7 Stocks Make New High….Catching S&P YTD

StockCharts

5. Non-Oil Energy Going Down While Energy Going Up……Clean Energy ETF -35% from Highs

StockCharts

6. TAN Solar -40% from Highs

StockCharts

7. XLU Utility ETF Negative for 2026…50day thru 200day to Downside

StockCharts

8. NYC Office Back on Top-Barrons

Barron’s

9. Residentail Investments Shrinking Slice of GDP

Advisor Perspectives

10. Why A 10-Second Balance Test Helps Predict Longevity-Arnold

Adults who couldn’t hold a 10-second one-leg stance had a higher death risk over 7 years.

Welcome to the positive corner of the internet. We’re here to make your life healthier, happier, and less stressful. At the bottom of each email, we explain our editorial process, stance on AI, and partnership standards.

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Today’s Health Upgrade

  • Number you won’t forget
  • Speak your way to better self-perception
  • Weekly wisdom

Fitness

Number You Won’t Forget: 10 Seconds

Many tests — from strength to VO2 max — are designed to assess longevity. But one test in particular requires no equipment whatsoever, and could highlight areas needed for improvement. 

Researchers found that a simple 10-second balance test could be one signal of your long-term health and is linked to a higher risk of early death

Scientists studied more than 1,700 adults and found that poor balance was strongly associated with all-cause mortality over the next 7 years. The test was pass/fail: you either held it for the full 10 seconds or you didn’t. 

To do it, fold your arms across your chest. Lift one leg until your thigh is parallel to the floor. Then hold the position. If you lose balance, sway, or step down, that’s when the test ends.

Even after adjusting for age, sex, weight, and health conditions, those who couldn’t balance on one leg had about an 84% higher risk of dying. 

If you can’t stand on one leg for at least 10 seconds, that doesn’t mean you should prepare for the end. Instead, balance reflects many of the attributes that truly matter for longevity.

Researchers believe a one-leg balance test is an effective test because it reflects a mix of strength, coordination, and nervous-system function that tend to decline together as we age, making it a useful snapshot of overall physical resilience.

https://arnoldspumpclub.com/?srsltid=AU7gw4WB6Oxm3jboLJe66VYgwiHBBG3rX0sg7CJ7Uf8Se5FnlFRkJR_8

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 21, 2026

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1. Tech Stocks Seeing Highest Fund Flows Ever

Fund Flows — Tech Stocks: tech sector ETFs just recently witnessed their largest inflows ever, and now comprise around 50% of sector ETF assets under management. Investors the world over have a huge amount of confidence in the outlook for US stocks, to put it lightly.

Topdown Charts

2. These Flows Do Not Match AAII Investor Sentiment ….Highest Bears in 12 Months

Bears are at their highest level since May 2025.

Kevin Gordon

3. More than 50% of S&P Stocks Trading Below 200 Day

Barchart

4. Bond Yields in Historical Range

Capital Group

5. Hyper Scaler Debt was Addressed by Fed Chair Warsh

Dave Lutz Jones Trading One interesting point in the presser came in Warsh’s response to the rise in Treasury yields, according to Jonestrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke. The Fed chair highlighted surging AI-related capex causing intense competition for capital. “Up until now the hyperscalers had asset-light business models generating free cash flow with almost no debt.” Those days are over, and “the rest of the AI trade is highly dependent on debt and equity capital markets to fund expansion.”

6. Bond Volatility Driving Stocks?

The Kobeissi Letter

7. The Result of Marriott Splitting into Two Companies….Marriott International Service Business Skyrocketed

The existing company would become Host Marriott. Host Marriott would receive virtually all of the physical assets such as real estate holdings, undeveloped land, and project partnerships. Importantly, they would also retain the vast majority of Marriott’s long-term debt.

The newly created company, Marriott International, would retain the service operations and intangible assets. This included the existing management contracts, franchise agreements, trademarks, etc. This business was a cash-generating machine and was left virtually debt-free.

Here’s how those two companies have performed since the separation in October of 1993:

Fiscal.ai

8. Demographics is Destiny…American Population has Shrunk Only During the Two Global Pandemics

9. Pew Research Poll Israelis/Palestinians

Pew Research Center

10. Dealing with Defensiveness

INC EXPERT OPINION BY JUSTIN BARISO, AUTHOR, EQ APPLIED @JUSTINJBARISO

Three simple phrases for dealing with defensiveness

Another effective method for dealing with defensiveness is to use self-talk. Some expressions that I’ve found helpful:

They don’t know. They don’t know what it’s like to be me or to walk in my shoes, so their comment is likely coming out of ignorance, and my dwelling on it isn’t going to do anyone any good.

I don’t know. In the same vein, I don’t know what it’s like to be them or to walk in their shoes. Maybe they’re dealing with their own insecurity, baggage, or difficult problem in their personal life, and that’s coming out in this situation.

This is not an attack. Perceived attacks aren’t always attacks. Can I see below the surface as to why the person is saying what they’re saying? Is it actually a plea for help, even if not communicated in the best way? Can I shift my focus to see how I can help the other person, to somehow create a win-win scenario, so we go from adversaries to teammates? (This one is most helpful after a pause, if the feelings of defensiveness continue to linger.)

And here’s a bonus tool you can use:

The golden question. How am I going to feel about this in five days? Five weeks? Five months? Five years? This helps me keep things in perspective.

(These are all examples of my “rules” and “words” of emotional intelligence, tools I use to help clients—and myself—manage emotions in the moment.)

All of us are human. Part of that means dealing with feelings of defensiveness from time to time. The key to effectively managing those feelings is to first understand the “why,” the root cause behind them. Then, you can use tools like the ones we’ve discussed to develop a strategy for dealing with those feelings.

The goal isn’t to end the feeling of defensiveness once and for all. But by applying these methods, you can reduce the frequency you experience it, and handle those feelings more effectively when they arise, leading to stronger relationships at work and home. That’s making emotions work for you, instead of against you—and it’s turning emotional into emotionally intelligent.

https://www.inc.com/justin-bariso/emotional-intelligence-why-how-to-stop-defensive-3-short-phrases/91404753?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&oly_enc_id=9218E7578789E9D

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 17, 2026

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1. QQQ Never Made New Highs on Chart after Summer Sell Off

StockCharts

2. Consumer Discretionary Stocks Sideways Chart for 12 Months

StockCharts

3. Same Store Sales Still Growing 5%

The Irrelevant Investor

4. Retail Sales Ex-Gas Stations Still Trending Up

Not even sky-high gasoline prices could dent their spending on bars & restaurants, ecommerce, cannabis stores, etc.  By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Gasoline prices soared in August, and consumers continued to buy gasoline, but paid much higher prices, and so sales at gas stations in dollars (not gallons) also soared and pushed up overall retail sales, which spiked by 1.2% in August from July, to $773 billion, seasonally adjusted, and were up by 6.0% year-over-year, according to data from the Census Bureau today.

But even without gas station sales, retail sales spiked by 1.1% seasonally adjusted in August from July, and rose by 4.9% year-over-year.

It’s not all based on Americans suddenly throwing their entire inheritance at retailers. Part of the month-to-month increase in August was due to the effect of recapturing the drop in July that in turn was due to Amazon Prime Day having shifted into June this year, from July last year, made worse by quirky seasonal adjustments, which we discussed at the time, and today’s jump wasn’t a surprise here. But it shows that spending at retailers continues growing at a solid rate, even without gasoline sales, and despite the gasoline price spike.

Wolf Street

5. S&P Performance After Rate Hikes

6. Bitcoin New Correlations to Dollar, S&P and Nasdaq

Marketwatch That’s according to analysis from CoinMarketCap Research, who say in commentary sent Wednesday “the usual macro playbook for how bitcoin reacts to a rate decision is unreliable this afternoon.”  Bitcoin selling on Tuesday reflected a market that had positioned for a yes vote on the crypto regulating Clairity Act and was forced to unwind when it didn’t come, according to CMC.

And while the Clarity Act drove that selling, bitcoin’s correlations with other assets was dwindling.  “Bitcoin’s short-window correlation to the dollar index sits at +0.08, versus -0.54 over the past 30 days. Its correlation to the S&P 500 has fallen to 0.43 from 0.75 yesterday, to the Nasdaq to 0.30 from 0.60 yesterday, and to gold to 0.28 from 0.69 over 30 days,” said CMC. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-500-nasdaq-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-september-meeting?mod=home_lead

StockCharts

7. Higher Interest Rates Negative for Small Stocks -6.5% One Month

Google

8. Russia Cheap New Weapons Full of Chinese Parts-WSJ

WSJ

9. Japan has 100,000 People Over 100 Years Old….90% Women

OLD NEWS

Japan has a problematic age gap

Unsplash

For the first time in its history, Japan has more than 100,000 people over the age of 100—and nearly 90% of them are women. The surge of centenarians is straining the country’s resources and making the male/female ratio at senior home mixers impossibly unbalanced.

To put the official total of 107,677 into context, that’s enough 100-year-olds to nearly fill AT&T Stadium in Dallas. When paired with Japan’s record-low fertility rates, the number of centenarians—which has risen for 56 straight years—is creating a host of fiscal problems:

Around one-third of the country’s ~120 million residents are drawing from public pensions.
The health ministry asked for $218 billion for pensions and medical care for next year’s fiscal budget, representing about a quarter of the overall requests.
The government estimates that it will need 2.4 million elder care workers in 2026, up from 2.1 million in 2024.
To supplement its withering workforce, Japan is recruiting care workers from abroad. After reaching 66,000 last year under a skilled-worker visa program, the government will now allow nearly three times that many under a new foreign-aid worker plan despite its usually strict immigration policies.—DL

www.morningbrew.com

10. Close to 50% of Millennials Looking at Prenups

Perplexity

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 16, 2026

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1. Software Revenue Per Employee Hockey Stick

Software revenue per employee. “S&P 1500 Software revenue per employee has gone parabolic. If you are looking for evidence that AI is starting to impact the real economy, this is exhibit A.”

@warrenpies

2. Monday Biggest Intra-Day Spread  Software +5% vs. Semis -5% In History

Joe Weisenthal

3. Mag 7 2026 Laggards Close to New Highs

StockCharts

4. No Money Flowing to Defensive Investments Yet

Where’s Everybody Hiding? 

People can say whatever they want.

But there’s a big difference between saying you’re worried and actually positioning your money like you’re worried.

I’d rather watch the money.

Especially when we’re talking about the biggest financial institutions in the world.

Because when markets really start to deteriorate, money moves.

Investors start protecting themselves. They move away from riskier parts of the market and toward safer ones.

And we can see it happening in real time.

That’s what this chart is about:

TrendLabs

These are three completely different relationships.

But they’re all telling us something similar about the health of the market.

And right now, I don’t see much evidence of deterioration.

5. Universal Bond Hatred

Lance Roberts

6. Gasoline in Driving Most of Inflation

Steve Rattner

7. Core CPI Continues Trend Downward

Bespoke

8. BRICS Countries Met this Week….5 Year Chart S&P 500 +83% vs. BKF (BRICS ETF) -10%

Ycharts

9. Are AI Data Centers Raising Your Electric Bill?

AI data centers use a lot of power, and it’s easy to assume that demand drives up electricity bills. A new data center can use as much power in a year as hundreds of thousands of homes. However, electricity markets don’t work like most markets, and the data tells a complicated story. USAFacts gathered data on electricity prices, data center locations, and much, much more for our deepest data dive yet.

USAFacts

  • A new data center built with capacity for 100 to 1,000 megawatts of power could consume as much electricity in a year as 80,000 to 800,000 homes. Virginia’s existing data centers currently draw enough for 7.5 million homes — more than double the state’s 3.4 million households.
     ​
  • It’s understandable to think that more demand would mean higher prices in general. And new grid infrastructure costs money. But the electricity market works in unique ways: power plants and other infrastructure are expensive to build, yet extra electricity is cheap to produce once those things exist.
     ​
  • National electricity prices (adjusted for inflation) have increased somewhat modestly nationally since ChatGPT kicked off the AI boom in 2022. Last year, the average residential electricity price was $0.17 per kilowatt-hour. In 2001, the inflation-adjusted average was $0.16.
     
  • Of course, rates have swung quite a bit for some people when you move past national averages. Washington, DC’s rose 45% from $0.16 in December 2022 to $0.24 in December 2025. Yet rates fell in states ranging from Hawaii to New Hampshire and Massachusetts.
     
  • And price swings aren’t new. We looked at other three-year stretches since 2000 and found nine other instances in which a state’s prices grew by more than 50%. All of these instances were before the AI boom.
     
  • States are working to keep data centers, not households, covering these costs. Some regulators are pushing utilities to charge data centers directly, and more utilities now bill them separately from other customers. Some AI developers have pledged to cover the costs themselves.

10. U.S. National Multifamily Apartment Starts -53% from 2022 Peak

Thompson Thrift

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 15, 2026

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1. Re-Sending this Chart …Tracking Seasonality

2. 100-Year Trend Chart from Ned Davis…We Are Out of the Box Above Trend

NDR

3. Equal Weight S&P Has Outperformed in 2026….Closes Below 50day

Stockcharts

4. Commodities Ratio to S&P 500

US Funds

5. NVDA is Financing the Buildout It Supplies

Critics are correct to call out that Nvidia is financing the buildout it supplies.

It issued $25 billion of bonds in June and returned $25.8 billion to shareholders, against $21.4 billion of free cash flow.

Demand is not the question. Nvidia has moved its customers’ financing risk onto its own balance sheet, and receivables now tell you more about the AI trade than revenue does.

ProCap Insights

6. Brookfield Private/Alts Manager that was Holding Up Well…Broke Trendline Going Back to Mid-2022

Stockcharts

7. TLT is ETF for 20-Year Treasury Bond

Barchart

8. Average Hourly Earnings Fall Back to 15-Year Trendline

9. Mid-Term Election Money…..Crypto PAC $137m and AI PAC $140m

Perplexity

10. Patterns of Unhappy People-Shane Parish

Patterns of unhappy people:

– Need social approval
– Are reliably unreliable
– Feel sorry for themselves
– Choose comfort over truth
– Refuse to learn from others
– Spend more than they make
– Use chemicals to alter mood
– Make everything about them
– Resent the success of others
– Confuse motion with progress
– Confuse cynicism with intelligence
– Promiscuous with their attention
– Always in love with their first idea
– Are always too smart to look stupid
– Need to learn everything from mistakes
– Build a life that looks better than it feels
– Protect their potential by never testing it
– Stay loyal to decisions that no longer make sense
– Win arguments at the expense of the relationships
– Standards for others and explanations for themselves

Not a good place to be.

https://fs.blog/about/